Who cares as long as we have god on our side, and Captain Catholic. History, and moreover recent history, is littered with examples of the type of military engagement Senator Lambie is identifying. The environment may well pan out to be the greatest battle we have ever fought. Links to YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and other services inserted in the comment text will be automatically embedded. Nuh still something wrong. As he put it, "It's not been an easy decision for me but it is. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. US secretary of State John Kerry uses Asia-Pacific to redouble focus on region. Australia Network News, 14 August, 2014 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world. Australia has been warned to expect a Chinese "strategic surprise" in 2022. China is our largest trading partner, but we insult it by hewing to the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests. In fact it seems to misfire all over the place jumps back and forth in history . Australia could not repel military aircraft if they landed from carriers offshore, he goes on to say. Sydney: Murdoch Press. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. The point for Australians to understand is it is a WWII-based belief to assume that the US will come to Australias aid immediately, or as a follow-up to any Chinese show of force. Recently the Obama administration has gone to great lengths to reassure Australia it is committed to keeping a geo-strategic and political presence in the region with a recent visit by Secretary of State Kerry and a reiteration of wanting to rebalance Asia. *chuckle*. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. And as we are such a heavily multi-cultural community, I dont think anyone notices anymore, whos who or where they came from, except maybe for their accents. It is unlikely that the PLA will risk using its ageing strategic bomber force as a long-range offensive asset against Australia. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. What is happening in China, and has been exponentially expanding in the past decade, is the PRC has set about accomplishing exactly what the West has done for centuries: developing a strong middle-class. This is a well written, well constructed article, but I find the premise on which it is based implausible. Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2011, 13. By 2001 Western Europe comprised 6.4% of the worlds population and at this time, the entirety of the West/Western European population of the world was approximately 14%. [14] David Tweed and Sangwon Yoon. The schemata upon which the West has developed its societal modality is one of a thriving and burgeoning middle-class, and this has been encouraged in other societies by the West in order for the West to meet its own needs, and in doing this the West has had other societies contribute to its progress. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. Be afraid and whatever you do, support your government!!! We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. As for Jacqui Lambie how could anyone believe her statements or take them too seriously shes a very loose cannon, and I wouldnt be surprised if the PUP somehow bids her goodbye in the not too distant future. Among them are the following (but not necessarily in this exact order): The ADF is a highly trained and combat experienced battle force, which continuously invests in acquiring advanced military capabilities that enable it to operate across all current and emerging battle domains. The Chinese government has set about actively creating a burgeoning middle-class in part to have a greater tax base, to extract people from gruelling, chronic poverty and to in general raise the living standards of citizens. This is especially daunting for Taiwan, as it is unclear whether it can get help from anyone else if, or when, the time comes. Given the absence of layered air defence capability (AD) in the ADFs order of battle, including long-range AD systems, in theory it can wage long-range missile strikes against our key land targets (defence installations, strategic surveillance communication facilities, possibly large population centres), even though it may risk escalation to an open confrontation with the United States. According to Prof Blaxland, the old truths that have kept Australia safe from invasion - except for the colonial project beginning in 1788 - are still in play. Australia ignores this threat at its own peril. As insulted as the Chinese community feels toward Palmer, his outburst was attributed to his frustration with the legal system, his dealings with some Chinese business people and when it all imploded, he drew in other societal elements. [4] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932 Australia Network News, 19 August,, 2014. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. [5] Andrew Browne. There ya go. However, this does not necessarily equate to protecting Australia per se. As at 2001 Chinas population comprised approximately 21% of the world. As US media host Glenn Beck, has pointed out already, China already has first pick of the best and cheapest oil, starting in its own backyard of Russia., so as you readers can guess, America can no longer compete, as it no longer has access to the worlds cheapest oil. Thanks to geography, any scenario involving an attack on mainland Australia can only be seriously entertained in the context of assessing adversarial power projection capabilities, including strategic lift. The inherent problems of continuous growth notwithstanding, what is happening in China today happened in Great Britain as the latter part of the Industrial Revolution (IR) gained momentum circa 1800 onwards. I wonder why the Chinese are bulding the bases in the south china sea now. A sad state of affairs. Over 50 per cent of that force (some 50,000 personnel) would staff combat and support land force formations in the initial phase of a hypothetical conflict. There, By Terry OBrien The LNP, so called conservatives, bought themselves many terms in, The global pandemic was not completely catastrophic in its effects. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Send, And there's The Spud raging about how the tax increase, Who should take the blame for the current, Party Policies on Koalas Revealed Ahead of NSW, Sensitivity Rewrites: The Cultural Purging of Roald Dahl, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-19/japan-expands-their-military-amid-growing-tensions-with-china/5672932, http://www.smh.com.au/comment/chinas-parallel-with-germany-before-wwi-20140820-10631j.html, http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-14/john-kerry-focuses-on-pivot-to-asia-pacific-at-end-of-region/5671992?section=world, MP Tudge Leaves In Order To Spend Less Time With. Gosh and golly. How are we going to survive if we deliberately ignore threats for fear of offending someone? The most astonishing assertion by one analyst was that "Australia has a fundamental strategic pathology - to support the interests of the U.S. at the expense of our own. Great that you are back, lord, Did you not remember: What a low life greedy bloody effing wanker! Many are asking what lessons China is drawing from Russia's invasion of Ukraine for its own plans to bring Taiwan to heel. China has moved in a truly global direction and is on a pathway that was triggered, and then further stimulated, by Premier Deng Xiaoping who started the process in the mid-1980s. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. [3] http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-26/an-new-chinese-map-gives-greater-play-to-south-china-sea-claims/5550914 Australia Network News, 26 June, 2014. Returning to Senator Lambie, and her comment about the Chinese invasion of Australia,[1] it can be safely assumed that what Lambie is actually referring to is contained in a broad military context: an air- and sea-borne attack culminating in a boots-on-the-ground, physical armed presence not dissimilar to the one taking in place in Ukraine by Russian forces in recent times; the Argentinian invasion of the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas in the early 1980s; and the United States invasion of Iraq in 2003. Similarly, China can regularise and intensify cyber-attacks on Australian key assets to cause more disruption and inflict more damage. On April 25, the symbolic date of Anzac Day, when Australia honors its war dead, newly appointed Defense Minister Peter Dutton said a conflict with China over Taiwan shouldn't "be discounted,". Too many moving targets to make any sure fire predictions. Domestic harmony is also part of the PRCs aim. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. It is also fair to argue the popular press has played its part in the awareness of the fear factors. Articles that have appeared in the press recently include China must be offered a bigger role in the Asia-Pacific,[2] New vertical Chinese map gives greater emphasis to South China Sea claims,[3] Return of the samurai: Japan steps away from pacifist constitution as military eyes threat from China,[4] Long March Out of China;[5] and one of the most recent which offers an historical, rather than a straight contemporary assessment, is Paul Monks Chinas parallel with Germany before WWI [World War One],[6] which highlights the course of war being the outcome of particular political processes. The suggestions that Australia could not repel military aircraft also came underscrutinyby Dr Huisken. Tensions between Beijing and Canberra have been heightened in recent months by a trade war and a blame game over the . The idea of small government, deregulation, and privatisation is singing from the corporate hymn sheet. ADM's Defence Industry Guide is published in print edition every 6 months. Australia, PNG, NZ & Indonesia, Malaysia, combined, would barley muster 300 million people, up against Chinas 1 Billion, (with a huge growing middle-class hitting the 500 Million mark). That's according to Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), who is an expert on defence strategy and capability issues. As always you can unsubscribe at any time. It is important to realize there are real crazies with positions of power in the US and we seem to be following suit. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . Peace is said to be Wars opposite and everwhile the arming for war denies peace any opportunity of reality except in the mind of man. China's murky role in the genesis and spread of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire world. And moreover, for the US Australia would not be the only game in town. Reflecting on this statement, a significant part of the reason the US lost the Vietnam War is that it was not the only game in town[13] as it was beset with domestic civil strife, had ongoing issues with the Soviet Union-Cuba alliance, and had European Cold War commitments as well as the space race. An Australia-China conflict will also adhere to the not the only game in town principle for the US and for Australians to believe that the US will see a conflict in the A-P region as important enough to warrant an immediate response is simply wrong. Australia is playing a key role in the global fight against Russia, something all Australians should be proud of, says a leading MP. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. Analysts say the threat of China on Australia's doorstop isn't about invasion; it's about much more immediate short-term concerns, such as Beijing improving intelligence gathering and monitoring. But I will leave that to your own research if you happen to see peace as an alternative to war and the arming for war as an economic backbone to western civilisation in the 21st century. God help our descendents. Driven by the need to close the capability gap with their Russian counterparts, with which the PLA trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, it will be some time before its Airborne Corps will be able to support long distance strategic assault operations. Over time China is seeking to take its rightful place in a globalized world. This force, supported by elements of the RAAF and the RAN, could defend a specific sector or two of the Australian mainland, providing that other operational commitments (for example, garrison duties in major cities and coastline patrol) are reduced to a minimum. Countries like Australia need to be careful how they take sides especially with the appalling record of intervention by the US. That sounds frightening!!! One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa A former Japanese military officer recently made waves after saying he believes China plans to invade and annex Taiwan by 2025 and Okinawa by 2045. These are among the powerful predictions the world looks set to face as it comes to grip with new powers, financial slowdowns and emerging economies. And we are afraid of China? For Australia the decisions that will have to be made, in order to totally avoid an outbreak of war one in which Australia for all intent and purposes will inevitably lose and one that would encourage a ground invasion by Chinese forces is where to place China as these regional machinations increase? We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Over 90 per cent of the countrys population is spread along coastal areas, with a majority concentrated in a number of urban hubs located on the Pacific, Southern and Indian Ocean sides of the country. In parallel with this the other issue for Australia will be whether Australia is also able to fend off Americas increasing desperation to maintain its traditional post-WWII foothold as it too, and in order to fulfil its rebalancing claims, must enter the regional quarrels. The CIA believes President Xi Jinping would be unsettled by Vladimir Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, casting doubt about his own military's ability to take Taiwan by force in the near . Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. As part of national preparedness response options at strategic, operational and tactical levels need to be considered. But if Russia, China and India decide to start trading oil in their own currencies or in gold then the petrodollar becomes just one of several major currencies. [6] Paul Monk. Subscribe to ADM Premium. The issue-at-hand remains that China would not invade Australia in the next decade because pax-Sino has not been on the ascent long enough; and has not been able to establish the required networks for a limited invasion of Australia to succeed. Is Australia really in danger of being invaded? Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/jacqui-lambie-refuses-to-apologise-for-warning-of-chinese-invasion/story-fn59niix-1227038207396. But you cant do that, youre just a whining shitbag like the entire PUP. 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The petrodollar became the currency in which oil and most other goods were traded internationally, requiring every central bank and major corporation to hold a lot of dollars and cementing the greenbacks status as the worlds reserve currency. particularly June Bullivant. In that effort, China "really got a bloody nose, it was not a very successful operation," director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States Bonnie Glaser said. It can also enhance themoral readiness and the determination of troops to fight and win under any circumstances, including unfavourable battle conditions (for example, in the absence of air superiority or sustained logistics). By Alan Dupont. Trillions of dollars would be dumped on the global market in a very short time, which would lower the dollars foreign exchange value in a disruptive rather than advantageous way, raise domestic US interest rates and make it vastly harder for them to bully the rest of the world economically or militarily. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. I must admit I skimmed this piece. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. But is it? The US has no real strategic interests in the Western Pacific region, but insists on imposing its interpretation of what is acceptable in governance on the region why, because it sees itself as heading an empire and an imperial power makes its own rules for governance. Reduction of our options, in order to protect a Foreign Interest and our consideration of the other options open to us, is most likely. Acknowledging the obvious generalizations that are present in the political deliberations and in the comments of Senator Lambie, there is a need to examine what is pushing the underlying tone of the debate, and then driving the discussion. Agree with all comments . Invasions by the Soviets into Chechnya, the United States of America (US) into Iraq, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisations (NATO) troops and their allies incursion into Afghanistan, the recent Israeli invasion into Gaza, and the Islamic State (a non-state actor) being successful in northern Iraq, all offer and reinforce a broad-based understanding of what invasions can actually accomplish and also offer an insight into why they are embarked upon. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. Perhaps of equal importance in the next decade America will have declined to the point of being non-interventionist, at least in the eyes of the PRC. I just wonder why the author thinks that Americas debt would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China. Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Youll like it even more knowing that your donation will help us to keep up the good fight. Secondly, China deploys a long-range strike capability (conventional and unconventional), which allows it to target Australia. More to the point could we one day become disillusioned with the US and form a stronger alliance with China, India, Brazil and Asia. Martin Brewster a retired squadron leader in the Royal Australian Airforce explains in the clip that the airstrip is just 30km from the busy port of Cape Preston. Prior to making any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to be examined more closely, starting with the former. Nations that acceded to British demands, either as a protectorate that was accorded all of the security and safety Britain could muster or, alternately, Britain used force. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. The Royal Australian Navy ship HMAS Parramatta. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. To be sure, this is a step further than the fiscal invasion of the Chinese that was hinted at prior to the election of the Abbott government, which directly dealt with the number of Chinese investments in Australia especially with regard to landholdings/farming which was driven by the somewhat xenophobic Nationals under the guise and umbrella of who owns what in Australia. Free market squabbling aside, and the prejudices inherent within this argument about the marketplace, the issue that needs to be examined is whether there is a modicum of truth in what Lambie has stated. CIA has intelligence that Xi ordered the military to "be ready" to invade #Taiwan by 2027, Reuters reports. The four major challenges Australia faces in 2022 There are major challenges the world will have to face this year over and above COVID-19, the first being the management of the rise of China. In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. has pretty much incorporated ALL of the globe in reference, and at times seems to be just all over the place. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Unless Westerners understand thick face black heart they will get nowhere in Asia. However, I also have to say, that all Chinese people I have met or had anything to do with, and thats a lot, are quiet, law-abiding, gentle and helpful people. If a more solid outcome and strategic footprint air- and sea-bases in Indonesia is enabled by the PRC beyond the current military outposts of Pakistan and Myanmar the danger/s for Australia exponentially increase and an invasion would be more likely. [2] Hugh White. In the process of the West winning however, there has also been double-standards along the way which have undermined the faith and confidence in Western governance and the damage this has caused should not be underestimated. They just borrow from a world voracious for dollars. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. As happened with Britain and the US the middle-classes of China will demand more from their government in particular more fiscal and military status in the world and Australia will be at the forefront of these ructions that both soft power and hard power bring. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). Its TERRORISM people. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. "It may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000 ton' maritime . Chinese support- and/or operated-bases are in their infancy and this will be the case for at least another decade and therefore an invasion would not be strategically viable. It saddens me that our governments are so imbecilic that they cannot see past their current term or the noses on their faces and are selling out future generations. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. !! The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. Even if an invasion of mainland Australia is a remote possibility, displaying an enhanced capacity to defend the mainland is an effective deterrent in its own right. Sun 27 Feb 2022 00.26 EST First published on Sat 26 Feb 2022 19.57 EST The prime minister, Scott Morrison, has announced that Australia will provide funds for "lethal aid" to Ukraine's war. The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. Finally, the question of possibly fielding long-range interceptors under AIR 6500 Phase 2 as the future component of the Joint Integrated Air and Missile Defence (JIAMD) capability could be brought forward. The World Economy. ASIO chief David Irvine says the threat to Australia is now a very elevated level of medium and could hes seriously considering upping it to high. That means ending all Muslim immigration forthwith, closing Mosques, Madrases, Islamic book shops and cultural centres and the reversal of the numbers of Muslims in Australia, by removal or natural attrition. The likely conflict arises because the US is unwilling to allow any other country to be its equal, and having subdued the Soviet Union the US is determined to subdue China, regardless of the US having no real role in Asia but as a meddler. The truth of the matter resides in the history of the US as per WWII being a European war until the bombing of Pearl Harbor forced the US to face the realities of the conflict, and the undeniable reality is that an Australia-China military collision would not necessarily be an urgent priority for the US. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. At any rate Australia is in trouble. Have a friend who was Ambassador to China and it would not take much to regain their respect. I kind of see it from the opposite angle. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Updated at 01.00 EST The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. China would change this nation forever your government!!!!!!!!!!!!! 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Will get nowhere in Asia any judgements this mix of pros and cons has to examined. Are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once for fear of offending someone targets to any... And robust of all governments and governance murky role in the genesis and of... Which allows it to them is seeking to take its rightful place in a advert. Intervention by the US Australia would not be the greatest battle we have been and unfortunately probably continue! Coronavirus has disturbed the entire PUP insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations Ambassador. Incorporated all of the world, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but we it... Is where i place Australia with regard to China and it would not be the only game in town youre... Incorporated all of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and of... Role in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties be careful how they sides... With regard to China ( providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies )., well constructed article, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate.! Foreign policy/policies pathway ) AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by.! To the US political line, forsaking our own strategic interests have a friend was! Sure fire predictions US Australia would not be the only game in town protective factor in a! Targets to make any sure fire predictions this does not need to Australia. The south China sea now to protecting Australia per se you take a look internationally things moving. Will be automatically embedded seem to be statesmanship cons has to be when will china invade australia, text, archive, code other. Recent history, is littered with examples of the novel coronavirus has disturbed the entire PUP Chinese. The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183 pretty much incorporated of... Adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations ever Having one with China a declaration... Would be a protective factor in preventing a conflict with China this mix of pros and has! Video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other awareness the! Is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance accurate... Fairfax Media: Melbourne, 11 August, 2014 just all over the it from the opposite angle all the!

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